Znanje na djelu

Labour Migration and Demographic Change in CESEE as Civic Competence

Labour Migration and Demographic Change. A Blueprint for Shaping Immigration Societies in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (2026-2028) is a project by ERSTE Foundation and THE CIVICS Innovation Hub, with partners in Croatia (Znanje na djelu), Hungary (Power of Humanity Foundation, Alternative Communities Association, ELTE Budapest & Periféria Policy and Research Center), Poland (The New Community Foundation & University of Warsaw), and Romania (Tech and Tonic). Through mapping, field research, multi-stakeholder consultations and community-building workshops (civic labs), it develops a solid evidence base on labour migration and demographic change as interlinked processes that are decisive for the economic prosperity and social wellbeing in the four countries. The goal of the project is to foster stronger alliances between academic research, the private sector, policymakers, and civil society, and co-create an integrated research report and policy blueprint. The blueprint offers decision-makers a practical orientation for shaping sustainable, inclusive immigration societies across CESEE.

The international research consortium is coordinated by Caroline Hornstein Tomić (Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb), who also leads the research activities in Croatia. The country research leads are Dóra Gábriel (ELTE Budapest) for Hungary, Agnieszka Fihel (Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw) for Poland, and Remus Gabriel Anghel (National School of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest) for Romania.

Why this project: Countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) are undergoing profound demographic transformation: population decline, emigration, ageing societies, and growing labour shortages are putting pressure on industries, labour markets, and social systems. By 2100, CESEE’s population is projected to fall by around 15%, compared to an EU average of 6%, with countries like Poland, Romania, and Croatia facing shrinkage of up to a quarter. Unlike Western EU states, most countries in the region have not yet addressed this through strategic immigration policy, which needs to complement family policies and return migration of co-nationals, as industries increasingly rely on migrant labour.

The project unfolds in four phases:

  • Phase 1: Mapping and field research in all four countries, including stakeholder interviews and focus groups;
  • Phase 2: Findings then feed into “civic labs” – multi-stakeholder consultations and community-building workshops that translate evidence into action and cross-sector alliances;
  • Phase 3: Interim results are tested in international workshops with academic and other experts in Vienna in 2027 and 2028;
  • Phase 4: The project concludes with an integrated research report and policy blueprint, presented publicly in Vienna, Zagreb, Budapest, Warsaw, and Bucharest.

Croatia serves as the initial implementation context, building on a 2024/2025 pilot mapping and workshop, with activities extending to Hungary, Poland and Romania from Q3 2026. Regular cross-country partner working tables run throughout the project, which concludes in December 2028 with the public presentation of the final report and blueprint.